When talking about Cloud9 and the Major, there has been a consistent debate about whether or not Cloud9’s victory at the event was a fluke. From what I’ve seen, the general problem is that people have different ideas of what a fluke means.
For instance, I consider a fluke to be a low percentage chance that a particular event occurs. From the responses I’ve read, people think that when someone calls the Cloud9 run at the Major a “fluke” that means they literally tripped over, got lucky, and won the entire thing. That they are somehow trying to discredit their play at that event.

I can understand it to a certain extent as people often fall along the lines of “if you aren’t with us 100%, you’re against us.” In my own experience, I’ve been called a hater or someone who doesn’t know SC2 for saying INnoVation was one of the greatest players, but not the greatest or for saying I’d pick Maru over Serral as SC2 player of the year.

But to actually battle against the argument, you have to disregard the impulsive reaction to the claim that Cloud9’s victory at the Major was a fluke and try to understand where the argument is coming from.

The Cloud9 lineup lasted from August 2017 to around March 2018. During that time, the team went to 11 LANs. These were the total results:

1st – DreamHack Denver (T2), IBP Masters (T2), Eleague Boston Major

2nd – CS Summit (T2)

Top 4 – DreamHack Montreal (T2), ESL New York, ELeague 2017

5-6th – ECS S4 Finals, IEM WC, WESG (T2)

9-12th DreamHack Malmo, Starladder i-League S4

We can split the probabilities into two different types of LANs, tier 1 and tier 2. In tier 1 Lans, Cloud9 got one 1st place, 2 top fours, two 5-6th finishes, and two 9-12th place finishes. So if we are breaking it down in terms of probability, Cloud9 wins tier one LANs one out of every seven LANs.

Then you can chart it across time. They started slow, started to rack up a few top finishes, got 1st at the Major, got 2nd at CS Summit, then fell off. So in terms of consistency, what they did at ELeague Boston Major could not be replicated on a consistent basis. Whereas someone like Astralis have consistently replicated their title form across the year.

Another way to look at it is in terms of game at the tournament. Boston was their A-game, the top four finishes and the T2 top finishes were their B-game. The others were their C-game. A-game is when they are at their best, B-game is their average, C-game is when they are playing at their worst.

When the only event where Cloud9 played their A-game was at the Major and they were never able to reach that peak before or after, I think it’s fair to say that it was a low probability chance of happening and thus a fluke. Everyone recognizes that they played great at the Major, but it was a miracle run and one that couldn’t be repeated. If it could have been duplicated, I don’t think Stewie2K or tarik would have left the team soon after.